Abstract:
This study investigates the effect of policy, market access, and governance on food production
in 12 East African countries from 1993 to 2022. The data was analyzed using both static and
dynamic panel models. The study data possess endogeneity, slope heterogeneity, cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation problems. The
static panel model estimates are no longer applicable; they are biased, inconsistent and
inefficient under this assumption. The dynamic panel ARDL approach confirmed that food
imports, log of food aid, inflation rate, fixed telephone subscriptions, and governance have a
significant negative effect on food production in the long run, while the lagged value of food
production has a negative effect on food production in the short run. The error correction
term value showed that all variables move towards long-run equilibrium at an annual speed
of adjustment of 28.32%, with the influence of the independent variables enhancing food
production in the long run. The study's country-specific analysis confirmed the existence of
short-term relationships in food production in the selected East African countries. The
Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causal relationships between food production,
log of food aid and fixed telephone subscription; unidirectional causal relationships between
food export, food import, governance, urbanization, and food production. To encourage food
production governments, monetary policy makers, and nongovernmental in East African
countries should focus on governance reforms to improve transparency, accountability, and
policy implementation in the agricultural sector, encouraging import substitution,
diversifying food sources, investing in technology, promoting sustainable agriculture,
building farmers' capacity through training. Policymakers should also provide support for
technological adoption and long-term improvements in food production, including mobile
device training in East African countries.
